College of Construction Engineering, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China

The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province, which threaten the local people's life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM (1, 1) model and forecast annual precipitation in disaster year of the Chedaren ravine; it provides scientific foundation for early warning of debris flow disaster in the rainy season based on weather forecast. The prediction results show that annual precipitation is 724.7 mm in 2009; the region will probably occur large-scale debris flow during the rainy season.