Exploration and Development ��esearch Institute of Daqing Oilfield Company Ltd��Daqing 163712��Heilongjiang��China

Combined with the exploration courses and data of three types of oil reservation��the multi cycle Hubbert model is applied to forecast the growth trend of three types of reservation including proved reservation�� controlled reservation and forecast reservation�� It is estimated that accumulated newly- found proved reservation��con- trolled reservation and forecast reservation will reach 0. 25 billion tons�� 0. 51 billion tons and 0. 6 billion tons��respectively��during the 13 th Five Year Plan�� The peak of controlled and forecast reservation will be coming around 2018 and the next peak of proved reservation will come after the controlled and forecast reservation�� The forecast re- sults indicate that the multi cycle Hubbert model is suitable and effective for forecasting the growth trend of reserva- tion characterised by the“multiple peaks”in northern Songliao Basin��